Preparing for the Next Pandemic

By Mitchell Kentor, M.D.

It is time to start planning for the next pandemic. At first, that may seem a premature thought with the world still battling COVID-19. Afterall, as of early January 2021, the CDC tracker confirmed 22,102,069 cases coupled with 371,084 deaths [1] in the US. Johns Hopkins currently estimates an observed case-fatality rate of 1.7% [2]. The California hospital system is bordering on a breaking point with more lockdowns enacted and some regions at 0% ICU bed capacity [3]. Beyond the human cost, the economic damage has been astronomical at an estimated $16 trillion [4]. With the fight against COVID-19 raging on you might reasonably ask, “Why is now the time to start thinking about another pandemic?” The answer is simple; we can’t let this happen again.

Among the devastation COVID-19 has caused, there is a stark reality we need to face. This will happen again. Without swift action, the next time might be even worse. The thought of another and possibly deadlier pandemic seems unthinkable. However, a quick look back at history shows us why we must consider that possibility.

The Black Plague is the most notorious epidemic in our history. The CDC quotes the untreated death rate of the Plague at 66% [5] and it accounted for an estimated 50 million deaths [6]. While the Black Plague may not be particularly threatening in the antibiotic era, its history demonstrates how dangerous an uncontrolled disease can be. The Plague may be relegated to history, but we have seen more recent threats.  In 1918 an influenza pandemic infected 500 million people and killed 50 million [7]. Within just the last 20 years, several other potential threats have occurred. SARS-COV, a coronavirus like COVID-19, caused an outbreak in China in 2003, when it infected 8,427 people in 29 countries and had a case fatality rate of approximately 9.7% [8,9]. In 2009, the H1N1 Influenza pandemic infected an estimated 60.8 million people and killed 12,469 in the United States [10]. Middle Eastern Respiratory Virus, also known as MERS-COV, another coronavirus, is believed to have a 35% mortality [11]. In 2014, MERS made it into the United States with two cases in Indiana and Florida [12]. The last two examples are especially alarming when the case fatality rates are compared to COVID-19. A pandemic with similar spread of either of these viruses would likely have caused millions of deaths in the US. In our global and interconnected world, these diseases can move quickly, and they pose a real threat to our society.

COVID-19 has taught us a critical lesson about pandemic response. We cannot rely solely on federal and state governments to provide a coordinated solution. Our state-by-state containment strategy failed to coral the virus. While the federal government succeeded in helping to fund and create a vaccine in record time, they didn’t do it alone. Corporations like Pfizer, BioNTech, and Moderna were integral to vaccine development. As we look to distribute the vaccine, many businesses, such as pharmacies will be critical to effectively distributing it at scale.

In the days ahead, as we emerge from the current pandemic, there will be many questions on what is next. As we decide what changes will become a permanent part of our economy and way of life, we must also commit to a new reality of preparedness. Just as businesses have contingency plans for alternative suppliers and various economic conditions, every business must now add a pandemic plan. The specifics of such a plan will vary from one business to another but should include an action plan that can be initiated quickly at the first warning of a threat. This will protect employees and help keep businesses operational. During the past year, we’ve seen how quickly a pandemic can move. Preparation is the only way for us to stay ahead of future threats.

Healthcare companies must plan even more extensively for the next pandemic. Major healthcare corporations need to work together to draft a joint response plan. To create a more efficient and effective response, these plans should, at the least, designate critical roles, outline a chain of command, and create open lines of communication between corporations and government agencies.

There will be those who say we cannot afford to do this. Even putting aside that this is the right course of action from a moral perspective, it is also the best choice to help protect the economy and profits for firms. This last year has shown that if people are sick or in danger of becoming sick, the economy cannot function. A healthy population and thus the healthcare industry are essential components to a strong economy. It is not easy to quantify the exact economic benefit of pandemic prevention, but a few statistics highlight the magnitude of the economic impact. As previously mentioned, COVID caused $16 trillion dollars, or about 90% of the US GDP in estimated damages [4]. Per a Yelp study, as of August 2020, 163,735 businesses have closed with 60% of them expected to remain closed permanently [13]. In contrast, the cost of preventing another pandemic is estimated at only $20-30 billion per year [14]. The math is clear. There are few, if any, investments that can yield such an impressive savings per dollar spent.

This last year, we’ve learned the hard way what the costs of a pandemic are, both in human suffering and economic damages. As we move towards our new societal and economic normal, pandemic prevention and planning must become routine for all businesses. The past has shown us that without intervention, this will happen again. To stop history from repeating itself, it is time to start preparing for the next pandemic.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Mitchell Kentor M.D. is a current student in the Northwestern Kellogg School of Management’s Evening & Weekend MBA program. He works full-time as an emergency physician for Infinity Healthcare. Prior to this, Mitchell completed his emergency medicine residency at Advocate Christ Medical Center where he was also part of the disaster medicine committee, conducted disaster medicine research, and served on the COVID-19 Strike Team helping to coordinate the pandemic response.

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